Posted by
Gabrielle Cusumano on Thursday, June 07, 2007 7:11:48 PM
JIHAD AMONG JUNIPERS AND MINT JULEPS. RADICAL ISLAM COMES TO FULL BLOOM IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
by Paul L. Williams, Ph.D. (author of The Day of Islam)
with the able assistance of Shawn Michaels, Jamal Babour and Dr. Hugh Cort

Entrance to the Jamaat ul-Fuqra Compound at Red House Va.
The Islamic practice of taqiyya, meaning "deception" or "concealment," has been refined into an art-form at a jihad training compound for African American converts near the small town of Red House in Charlotte County, Virginia.
The fifty-acre compound is easy to find since the main road leading to it has been named Sheikh Gilani Lane in honor of the guru and founder of a terrorist organization with close ties to Osama bin Laden. The Board of Supervisors of Charlotte County are either oblivious to the threat of radical Islam on American soil or clandestine advocates of the great jihad.
At the end Sheikh Gilani Lane is a sign - - barely visible through the overgrown brush - - that reads, "The Muslims of the Americas." The sign serves to make the place appear as an innocuous religious settlement, until one realizes that The Muslims of the Americas is, in reality, an outgrowth of Jamaat ul-Fuqra, an alleged sister agency to al-Qaeda.
Several weeks before 9/11, a guard house and a gate had been erected at the entrance to the Red House compound.
But the guard house and the gate are now gone, and no sentries - - armed or otherwise - - are in sight, that is until you get well inside the complex of old trailers and pre-fab shanties. The only person to be seen in the the compound is an African American crone in a full black burqa sans the face cover known as a hijab. The day is hot and humid and the burqa serves to give the wizened old woman the appearance of a wayside witch from a Grimm's fairy tale.
"The men are all gone," the crone says from a park bench. "No one is here."
 Road and observation tower
The Red House compound certainly appears deserted. A few mobile homes, several rusty old trailers, and a few mounds of debris among waist-high weeds remain along an old dirt road that runs through the Islamic village, but there appears to be little of interest, let alone concern.
As soon as the investigators park their car and trek into compound, the old woman removes a mobile phone from a sachet and dials a number.
In a matter of minutes, a pick-up truck appears at the entranceway. Two young African Americans dressed in skull caps and jalabiyahs emerge from the vehicle. "What are you doing here?" they ask.
Jamal, an Egyptian journalist, says in Arabic, "I'm here to see the Imam. Where does he live?"
One of the young men, whose Arabic name translates as "Slave of God", indicates that the Imam is not in and he should knock on the door of a ramshackle blue structure where he was told "Ahmed", one of the Elders may be found.
Jamal proceeds to the structure and rings the bell, but no one answers. Another member of our investigative team knocks at the doors of the trailers and mobile homes but there is no response. Some of the windows to the homes have been holed up with bricks save for openings that are ideal for assault rifles.
The young African Americans, who have shown up on the scene, are becoming agitated. They begin to make calls on their cell phones.
Then something miraculous happens.
At the Imam's residence, Muslim men begin to emerge in droves from a small storage shed attached to the house. It seems like a scene from a Marx Brothers movie in which dozens of people pour out of a closet. The investigators are suddenly surrounded by forty or fifty members of the complex in Islamic gowns and white skullcaps.
"What brings you here?" they ask.
 Imam's residence at Red House compound
"We heard about the village," Jamal says, "and wanted to pay a visit. I thought I could stop by for evening prayers."
"The evening prayers are over," says one of the newly materialized men, who could be a professional body builder.
In the blink of an eye, another wondrous thing occurs.
Hundreds of more African Americans in Islamic garb materialize from the dense forests, the high grass of the open meadows, and the rusty trailers that just seconds ago appeared to be deserted.
A covey of late model cars and SUV's converge on the compound from a network of dirt roads. The Muslims who emerge from the vehicles appear more affluent than the others. The men wear white halabiyahs with matching head coverings. The women are dressed in colorful caftans and flowing abayas. They seem to be models from the Crescent Moon boutique.
"Are you the police?" a female villager asks through the shaded window of the Imam's residence.
"No," Jamal answers. "We just stopped by to join in prayer."
"This is not a place for tourists," screeches the woman in the Imam's house, "and we don't like you taking pictures of our houses and automobiles."
By this time, the Red House compound is swarming with hundreds of Muslim men, women, and children - - and several appear to be deeply agitated by the intruders.
Jamal produces a card from a radical imam he had met the day before at the radical Dar al-Hijrah mosque in Falls Church. It serves as a ticket out of the place.
 "Ahmed's" residence at Red House
What is taking place in the Red House complex? Is the complex amidst the rolling hills of southern Virginia a peaceful Islamic village where devout Muslims have gathered to retreat from the hustle and bustle of contemporary American life in order to pray, meditate, and to live in strict accordance with the traditions of their faith? Or is it something more sinister - - something that should alarm every American who is concerned about the threat of radical Islam?
These factors are clear:
(1). There is an underground bunker at the complex that may be used for paramilitary training and possibly to harbor deadly weapons for use in the great jihad against Christians and Jews. Twenty-four members of this Jamaat ul-Fuqra complex already have been arrested for trafficking in illegal firearms, including the ammunition for AK-47s.
(2). Members of the compound have been sent to Pakistan and Afghanistan for specialized training in guerilla warfare - - a fact confirmed by Thomas P. Gallagher, a Special Agent for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms.
(3). The Red House compound regularly receives visits from suspicious guests from Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.
(4). The Red House cell of ul-Fuqra has metastasized so that similar Islamic compounds have popped up in neighboring Prince George and Campbell Counties. The 25 acre facility in Prince George County is situated on Mahareen Road, a name selected by the Muslim newcomers and duly approved by the local ordinance officials. Mahareen is the plural of the Arabic mahar, meaning "clever one." The facility in Campbell County is considerably larger, occupying more than 100 acres. An additional compound reportedly has materialized in Bedford County near the city of Roanoke.
(5). Several Virginia compounds appear to possess obstacle courses, and firing ranges.
(6). Members of the compounds have been known to refer to themselves as "soldiers of Allah" and "Mohammad's commandos."
(7) What happens in the Red House compound stays in the Red House compound. The members of the radical Islamic community rarely appear in the nearby town; conduct little business with local merchants; and stay to themselves.

Mosque and Learning Center
The Muslims of the Americas, the tax-exempt corporation which owns and operates the Red House compound, was formed in 1980 by Pakistani cleric Sheikh Mubarak Ali Gilani. It is, according to an official report, a "front organization" for terrorist activities. A 2005 Homeland Security report predicts that the Muslims of the Americas will sponsor a major terrorist attack on American soil.
The parent organization of The Muslims of the Americas is Jamaat ul-Fuqra or "community of the impoverished" which retains headquarters in Lahore, Pakistan. The purpose of Jamaat ul-Fuqra, as established by Sheikh Gilani, is not to serve some beneficent good for the cause of the impoverished but rather to "purify" Islam through violence.
A quack practitioner of something called "Quranic psychiatry, Sheikh Gilani refers to himself as "the sixth Sultan ul Faqr." The Sheikh claims to have supernatural powers and to receive regular visits from "non-human beings." In 1979, Gilani came to believe that he could begin the processing of purifying Islam through violence with the aid of socially disgruntled and economically disenfranchised blacks within the inner cities of New York and New Jersey. The basis of this belief was Gilani conviction that a sizeable number of African Americans fostered an innate hatred of the United States and could be easily convinced to further the cause of global jihad. Many may have viewed Gilano's mission as a cockamamie scheme that smacked of racism, but it worked like a hypnotic charm from Scheherazade.
At the al-Farouq mosque in Brooklyn, a dingy establishment at 554 Atlantic Avenue, Gilani, sporting ammunition belts, spoke of Islam as the cure for all societal ills and called upon the young men in attendance to take up arms in the holy war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Hundreds answered the call and headed off to a training camp in Abbotabad, Pakistan that had been established by Osama bin Laden and other members of the mujahadeen.
Knowing the need for new recruits, Gilani turned to the penal system and focused his attention on converting incarcerated blacks to his radical Islamic doctrine. Imams and religious instructors were dispatched to local, state, and federal prison facilities to accomplish this objective. The results were mind-boggling. Thousands converted on a weekly basis, drawn to the offers of protection, special meals, and release from work detail for daily prayers and the entire month of Ramadan.
Gilani soon came to the realization that it would be financially advantageous to train new recruits for the holy war on American soil rather than to pay the freight of sending them to Pakistan, and the sites of his other training camps throughout the world. And so, Islamberg in Hancock, New York came into being. Soon other hamaats were established in such places as Hyattsville, Maryland; Falls Church, Virginia; Macon, Georgia; York, South Carolina; Dover, Tennessee; Buena Vista, Colorado; Talihina, Oklahoma; Tulane Country, California; Commerce, California; and Onalaska, Washington. The Red House compound cropped up in 1993. Others are under construction, including an expansive facility in Sherman, Pennsylvania. How many hamaats are now in place throughout the United States is anyone's guess. A low-ball figure is 38.
Before becoming a citizen of the Red House compound or any of the other Fuqra communities, the recruits - - primarily inner city black men who became converts in prison - - are compelled to sign an oath that reads: "I shall always hear and obey, and whenever given the command, I shall readily fight for Allah's sake." They are also obliged to contribute 70% of their welfare checks and other sources of income to Muslims of the Americas, Inc.
Mission accomplished among the African Americans, Sheikh Gilani returned to his native Lahore circa 1990. In December 1993, he was an honored guest at an international gathering of jihadis at the residence of Hassan al-Turabi in Khartoum. At the gathering, attended by members of al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular and Democratic Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine, Sheikh Gilani, Osama bin Laden, and other prominent terrorist leaders were caught on film chanting, "Down, down with the USA!" "Down, down with the CIA," and "Death to the Jews."
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Over the years, numerous members of Jamaat ul-Fuqra have been convicted in US courts of such crimes as conspiracy to commit murder, firebombing, gun smuggling, and workers' compensation fraud. Others remain leading suspects in criminal cases throughout the country, including ten unsolved assassinations and seventeen fire-bombings between 1979 and 1990. Associates of the group were also instrumental in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.
The criminal charges against the group and the criminal convictions are not things of the past. In 2001, a 19 year-old former resident of the Red House compound was charged with the first-degree murder in the shooting of a sheriff's deputy in California. By 2004 federal investigators uncovered evidence that linked both the DC "sniper killer" John Allen Muhammed and "Shoe Bomber" Richard Reid to the group and reports surfaced that Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl was captured and beheaded in the process of attempting to obtain an interview with Sheikh Gilani in Pakistan.
Even though Jamaat ul-Fuqra has been involved in bloody bombings and sundry criminal activities, recruited thousands of members from federal and state penal systems, and appears to be operating paramilitary facilities for militant Muslims, the terror organization remains to be placed on the official US Terror Watch List, and The Muslims of the Americas continue to operate, flourish, and expand as a legitimate nonprofit, tax-deductible charity.
Meanwhile, the hills of rural Virginia are alive with the sound of jihad.
But few are listening. http://www.gerardgroup.com/articles/williams2007-05-31.php
All Credit Paul Williams and WWW. Gerard Group. |
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Table 1. Potential Terrorist Events (Combination of Site and Mode of Attack) in Charlotte County Ranked by Terrorist Alert Score
| Site |
Mode |
Terrorist Alert Score |
| Mall |
Biological |
4.12 |
| Festival |
Suicide bomb |
4.11 |
| Festival |
Vehicle bomb |
4.06 |
| Festival |
Chemical |
3.83 |
| Mall |
Chemical |
3.74 |
| Hospital |
Chemical |
3.50 |
| Store—food |
Biological |
3.37 |
| Hospital |
Biological |
3.36 |
| Mall |
Suicide bomb |
3.31 |
| Festival |
Biological |
3.27 |
| Mall |
Bomb—baggage |
3.20 |
| Cultural center |
Biological |
3.12 |
| Hospital |
Vehicle bomb |
3.04 |
| Mall |
Vehicle bomb |
3.00 |
For any given terrorist event (such as a biological attack at a shopping mall), terrorists could choose to carry it out in dozens of ways. To provide a look into the thinking of terrorists, we developed three scenarios for carrying out some of the 14 events.
Scenario 1: Vehicle bomb attack, then chemical attack, at a major festival.
Objective: To stage a terrorist attack in Charlotte County, FL, that will kill many and maim many more and thus instill hysteria.
Strategy: A truck bomb attack followed immediately by a chemical attack.
Plan: At a very popular Charlotte County festival, while the maximum number of people is present, three terrorists drive small pickup trucks, through separate festival entrances, directly into the crowds of people. Simultaneously, each terrorist will detonate a 500-lb. charge. Each explosion is expected to kill more than 50 persons and injure many more. Then, coinciding with the explosions, just as soon as survivors are huddling at a point equally distant from the three explosions, a fourth terrorist will use a fire hose to spray the survivors with anhydrous ammonia. At least 10% of those sprayed with the ammonia are likely to die. Many of those who survive will be blinded or horribly burned. So many burns will occur that the county’s health services will be unable to handle the volume and severity of the injuries.
These attacks will be completely unexpected and will result in mass panic, not only in the county but across the state and country as well. The immediate economic impact of these attacks will not be great. Only a few hundred people will be killed, and perhaps a thousand or so will be severely injured. The fear that will be created will far exceed the impact of any economic cost.
Scenario 2: Vehicle bomb attack, then a chemical attack at a major shopping mall.
Objective: To stage an attack that will convince the American public that government is powerless to protect them.
Strategy: A vehicle bomb attack will be used to cover an even more deadly chemical attack.
Plan: While crowds are at a maximum, three terrorists will simultaneously, at high speed, drive automobiles into separate entry points of a major shopping mall, directly into the crowds, where each terrorist will detonate 500 pounds of explosives. Each explosion is expected to kill 15 persons and injure another 125. Coinciding with the vehicle detonations, aerosolized sarin (which is more deadly than sarin applied to skin) will be dispensed throughout the mall through the ventilation system. At least 30% of those in the mall remaining alive after the vehicle detonations are likely to die from breathing the gas. There will be many deaths and so many injured that the county’s healthcare system will be sorely taxed.
That the attack will have occurred in a quiet, unassuming Florida county will frighten the American public far more than did the deaths and destruction that occurred in New York City on 9/11.
According to the 1997 Economic Census,5 49% of Charlotte County’s revenue is attributable to retail sales—a much higher proportion than for the country as a whole. County revenue, then, will be devastated by the economic impact of these attacks. But it will go far beyond Charlotte County. Throughout the country, people will stay away from shopping malls because if such an attack can happen in a county in Florida, it can happen anywhere. The recession from which the country is emerging will return with a vengeance.
Scenario 3: Biological attacks in hospitals followed by suicide bomber attacks in a popular shopping mall.
Objective: To paralyze the state of Florida and have an impact on the entire United States.
Strategy: To surreptitiously attack a key industry—health care—and overtly attack the retail industry.
Plan: Three individuals armed with two-ounce hairspray containers filled with a critical solution of smallpox virus in water would enter Charlotte County’s three hospitals approximately 15 minutes before the peak lunch hour. They would proceed to the hospital cafeteria and approach the salad bar, fruit bar, or suitable equivalent. They would carefully spray the solution over the bar, obtain a salad, and go to a nearby table and observe. Afterward they would leave the hospital at a leisurely pace. The process would be repeated before dinner—again in the cafeteria. The same steps would be taken the next day.
After 12 days, the infection rate for healthcare workers would be about 80%, while that for hospital patients would probably be around 90%; families of workers and patients would also have a very high rate of exposure that would, in all likelihood, lead to infection.
On the 12th day, at dinnertime, all three terrorists would independently proceed to the food court in Charlotte County’s main shopping mall. Sitting separately at key locations, they each would detonate explosive packs of 25 pounds of a nitrate compound. This would kill about 50 people and injure another 100 or so. The casualties would be rushed to hospitals that are severely biologically contaminated. At this point, hospital personnel and others would be at the threshold of showing the pox symptoms. County deaths could easily be in the thousands, and an ultimate financial loss of millions of dollars could be expected.
The terrorists would have released a videotape describing their mission and telling Americans to expect more. Across Florida and the United States, the healthcare system would be in panic and the retail industry would crumble. Two-thirds of the U.S. gross national product6 is accounted for by consumer spending. In all probability, the United States would rapidly go into a depression.
With all the discussion in the news media about terrorists and the potential for terrorist attacks, rational people might be led to believe that many safeguards have been put into place. Shortly after deaths started occurring from anthrax contamination of the U.S. mail, there was much discussion, for example, about the possibility of terrorists staging smallpox attacks. One might assume that hospitals, at least, would have implemented safeguards.
The three scenarios we described are just that—scenarios, not forecasts of doom. All in all, Charlotte County is no doubt a low-probability target for terrorist events. In fact, while a cutoff terrorist alert score of 3.0 may make sense for a given county in identifying what deserves to be safeguarded against, the government of the state in which that county is located should probably not become involved for county terrorist alert scores lower than 5. Likewise, the federal government should probably not become involved for county terrorist alert scores lower than 6.
Our intent was to demonstrate how an attack process unfolds and what the targets and modes of attack might be. Most of the counties in Florida (or any other state) could be handled, using the Terrorist Target Selection and Prioritization Model, in a similar way. Larger areas in Florida (such as Miami-Dade County or Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater) would be evaluated somewhat differently.
The process shows the overall steps involved in planning an attack. Obviously, defenders cannot plan for all possible contingencies. The procedure is not a replacement for good intelligence data (which are not always available). Using the model allows a structure for attacks, a reduction of possible attack targets and modes, and the ability to view alternatives—facilitating defense planning and allocation of resources.
Conclusions
Starting with no a priori beliefs as to what terrorists might undertake, we were able to use the mode to cost-effectively identify and prioritize what terrorists might undertake within the county. By knowing what constitutes high-priority potential targets, those responsible for the at-risk entities (hospitals, festivals, etc.) have the opportunity to implement countermeasures designed to avoid (or reduce the severity of) terrorist attacks.
Not only political or military entities may become targets of terrorist attacks. Consider Illinois State University, with 22-story twin dormitories in which over 2,000 students reside, and State Farm Insurance Company’s national headquarters a mile or so away. It would make sense for planners in such entities to assess their vulnerabilities to terrorist acts but, unfortunately, they probably aren’t doing so. As Joshua Sinai indicated, as a nation, we don’t suffer from intelligence failures so much as from failures in imagination.
Recommendations
Because it is both effective and cost-efficient, the Stungis-Schori Terrorist Target Selection and Prioritization Model should be widely used by federal, state, county, and city governments and other entities to assess vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks.
If the methodology we used in Charlotte County is faithfully followed in assessing other entities, the resulting terrorist alert scores will be useful in comparing the vulnerabilities in one entity with those in another. In Charlotte County, a terrorist alert score of 3.0 is the point at which one should start developing countermeasures, as opposed to ignoring the threats.
Author Contact Information George E. Stungis, Ph.D. Thomas R. Schori, Ph.D. Mark O. Asperilla, M.D. Larry G. Beebe Raymond A. James, D.O. Rufus C. Lazzell David J. Rice, M.D. Wayne P. Salladé
References
1. George E. Stungis and Thomas R. Schori, “A Terrorist Target Selection and Prioritization Model,” Journal of Homeland Security, March 2003.
2. Joshua Sinai, “How to Forecast and Preempt al-Qaeda’s Catastrophic Terrorist Warfare,” Journal of Homeland Security, August 2003.
3. Robert Carpenter, Charlotte County, Florida, Statistical Prospectus, 2002-2003 edition, Charlotte County Chamber of Commerce, Punta Gorda, FL.
4. G.A.V. Borg and L. E. Marks, “Twelve Meanings of the Measure Constant in Psychological Power Functions,” Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, vol. 21, pp. 73-75, 1983.
5. 1997 Economic Census, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC.
6. 2002 Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. | | |
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A Prescription for Safeguarding Against Terrorist Attacks
July 2006
George Stungis, Thomas Schori, Mark Asperilla, Larry Beebe, Raymond James, Rufus Lazzell, David Rice, and Wayne Salladé
George E. Stungis, Ph.D., is the CEO of Medical Technology Corporation, Port Charlotte, FL.
Thomas R. Schori, Ph.D., manages Millennium Marketing Research, Normal, IL.
Mark O. Asperilla, M.D., Port Charlotte, FL, is a specialist in infectious disease.
Larry G. Beebe is Manager of Planning, Environmental Health, Department of Health, Port Charlotte, FL.
Raymond A. James, D.O., is Medical Director, Faucett Memorial Hospital Emergency Case Center, Port Charlotte, FL.
Rufus C. Lazzell is a retired U.S. Army brigadier general and former mayor of Punta Gorda, FL.
David J. Rice, M.D., Port Charlotte, FL, is a radiation oncologist.
Wayne P. Salladé is Director of the Charlotte County (FL) Office of Emergency Management.
Since the 11 September attacks, much of the literature on terror has focused on the psychology of terrorism rather than on identifying attacks that may occur. While the psychology of terrorists is important, it doesn’t do much to help those responsible for defending against terrorist acts. One thing should be remembered: terrorists, whoever they may be (Middle Eastern, Asian, European, or domestic), will use whatever tools are most suitable that they’re trained to use and are available.
In “A Terrorist Target Selection and Prioritization Model” (2003),1 the senior authors described a mathematical model they believed to be of the type used by al-Qaeda planners in selecting targets. By using this model, those responsible for safeguarding against acts of terrorism would have a heads-up as to which targets terrorists are likely to attack. To demonstrate the model, a terrorist assessment team of eight specialists played the role of terrorists in an action where the target was a Florida county with no obvious strategic sites. Using the model in a process of several steps, they identified 99 terrorist events, then determined the impact and likelihood for each event. The product of a given event’s impact and likelihood constitutes that event’s “expected value.” By ordering the 99 events according to their expected value, those responsible for providing safeguards reduce to a relatively small number the events for which to prepare.
Next, the assessment team developed three scenarios (involving six terrorist events). Using one scenario (involving two events), they easily carried out a simulated terrorist attack.
In 2003, Joshua Sinai2 concluded that the failure to anticipate 9/11 was not an intelligence failure but that 9/11 was simply beyond the imagination of those responsible for intelligence and law enforcement. He also emphasized the necessity to “adopt proactive measures to anticipate, defend against, and preempt new types of terrorist threats” and that “terrorists, especially al-Qaeda planners, always seek to exploit new vulnerabilities and new and innovative modes of warfare in order to evade detection and inflict maximum damage.” Firmly agreeing with Sinai’s conclusions, we believe that we must think like terrorists, determine what they are likely to undertake, and develop appropriate countermeasures.
Since 11 September, much has been done to bolster defenses in the United States. These steps have focused on such sites as airports, tunnels, and bridges. Consequently, these types of sites have become hard targets, a fact of which terrorists are well aware. Even so, the question is whether those focusing on these hard targets are focusing on the areas in which we truly are vulnerable.
In dealing with terrorists, particularly al-Qaeda, we cannot rely on historical trends with regard to sites and attack modes. Instead, we must anticipate unconventional methods, techniques, and targets—which means that we simply must think like terrorists. Furthermore, it would be a another failure in imagination if we as a nation focused exclusively, or nearly exclusively, on geographic areas with many potential hard targets. We should also consider areas where hard targets are scarce, where little thought has been given to the possibility of terrorist attacks.
Methodology
We came to the conclusion that to meaningfully identify potential domestic terrorist attacks, we would need to look at relatively small geographic areas (for example, county by county) rather than at the nation. For this reason we selected Charlotte County, FL, for testing the effectiveness of our Terrorist Target Selection and Prioritization Model. The county is devoid of strategic targets. People who live there, like those in many other areas of the United States, go about their business every day without being particularly concerned about terrorist attacks. Charlotte County3 has approximately 150,000 residents; 35% are age 65 or older. County government and medical and health providers are the leading employment segments, along with the varied retail industry. The county has another interesting and distinguishing feature: it accommodated several of the 11 September terrorists. Mohammed Atta visited restaurants, facilitated overseas cash transfers, and sought aid in a local hospital there. It is reasonable to assume that the county is well known to al-Qaeda planners.
To identify potential terrorist attacks in Charlotte County, we created a team of eight “terror planners” (the authors of this article) with backgrounds in physics-math, psychology, infectious disease, radiation oncology, emergency room medicine, emergency management, environmental health planning, and senior levels of the U.S. military.
Using the equations described in Stungis and Schori’s 2003 article on the Terrorist Target Selection and Prioritization Model, our team, thinking like terrorists, identified 99 possible terrorist events (target sites and modes of attack) that might take place in Charlotte County. The planning team judged the likelihood of success (from a terrorist perspective) for each event. Then the team made judgments, using the Stevens Power Function,4 of the impact that each event would have on three terrorist objectives (publicity, with a weight of 0.2; casualty count, with a weight of 0.3; and economic impact, with a weight of 0.5). Cross-impact matrices were also constructed. The product of the likelihood rating and the overall weighted impact associated with each terrorist event constitutes the expected value to the terrorists. Since the likelihood scores are probabilities and the impact scores can range from 0 (no impact on the terrorist objectives) to 8 (maximum on each terrorist objective), the resulting terrorist alert scores can range from 0 to 8.
Results
We believed that it would not be necessary to further consider potential terrorist events that had terrorist alert scores less than 3.0. The terrorist alert scores themselves can be thought of as a type of desirability index (from a terrorist perspective) and as a terrorist alert index (from the perspective of those responsible for safeguarding against terrorist attacks). Thus, we have been able to logically reduce the number of events so that countermeasures can be implemented (see Table 1).
The most attractive event (from a terrorist vantage point) would be a biological attack at a shopping mall in Charlotte County, followed by a suicide bomber attack at a major festival in the county.
Excerpt From:
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FBI HELPS ISLAMBERG ALFUQRA TERROR TRAINING, HIKING AND MOUNTANINEERING CLUB
Radical Muslim paramilitary compounds flourishing across the United States
Islamberg not the only radical Muslim compound flourishing in North America
By Judi McLeod
Monday, May 21, 2007
The two FBI types breaking bread with the enemy in the photo above at "Islamberg" look right at home to Canada Free Press (CFP). Notice the weapons these dudes are wearing at the dinner table?
Islamberg is just one of what is thought to be a half dozen radical Muslim paramilitary compounds flourishing across the United States, this one nestled in dense forest at the foothills of the Catskill Mountains on the outskirts of Hancock, New York.
Canada, home to at least one such compound, is no safe ground.
Story: Radical Muslim paramilitary compound flourishes in upper New York state
Now that the photos of the two unidentified FBI types have been published, we will undoubtedly hear that they were merely working undercover. But some sticklers would consider saying cheese from the dinner table of the enemy is over the top.
Hundreds of letters have deluged (CFP) since it published a story with pictures of Springtime in Islamberg, written by The Day of Islam author Dr. Paul Williams with the able assistance of Doug Hagmann, Bill Krayer and Michael Travis.
Many letter writers complain that local authorities are telling them they have never heard of the compound.
Islamberg is an al Fuqra house. "Fuqra has had a disturbing U.S. presence for more than 20 years." (The weekly Standard, March 18, 2002). "Today, half a dozen Fuqra residential compounds in rural hamlets across the country shelter hundreds of members, some of whom, according to intelligence sources, have been trained in the use of weapons and explosives in Pakistan."
In a world where authorities make like terrorism doesn't exist, Fuqra's founder and bossman, Sheikh Mubarik Ali Hasmi Shah Gilani, is not only alive and well--he has a road "Sheikh Gilani Lane" named after him. This road is not in faraway Pakistan, but right in Charlotte County, Virginia.
Charlotte County is a rural farming community in Central Virginia near the North Carolina border.
Like its counterpart in Hancock, New York, it is inhabited by proud Americans many whose sons and daughters are fighting for our freedom in Iraq.
"This is not only an embarrassment to the citizens of Charlotte County it is a disgrace to the entire country and an insult to the victims of 9/11 and those fighting overseas in the war against terrorism," wrote Martin Mawyer, president of the Christian Action Network.
"Sheikh Gilani has rubbed shoulders at international terrorist confabs with gunslingers from Hamas and Hezbollah, their mullah backers, and Osama bin Laden. And he has trained fighters for the battlefields of Kashmir, Chechnya and Bosnia." (the weekly Standard).
Dropping in on radical Muslim paramilitary compounds isn't good for your health. Two bloggers who posted the plucky Williams' Islamberg story had their lives threatened.
Most infidels, including even the local undertaker, are denied access to compounds such as Islamberg.
Indeed, the very undertaker denied access wrote a letter telling the author/journalist he was surprised he made it off the compound with his life intact.
The undertaker says he has delivered bodies to the complex but has yet to be granted entrance. "They come and take the bodies from my hearse," he told Williams. "They won't allow me to get past the sentry post. They say that they want to prepare the bodies for burial. But I never get the bodies back. I don't know what's going on there but I don't think it's legal."
As far as is known, Gilani launched his first U.S. operation without interference from any authority back in 1980.
By the 1990s, Fuqra's communes were being touted as havens where Muslim converts--many of them inner-city blacks, sometimes recruited in prison--could find new direction for their lives.
Why aren't people reading about these flourishing compounds in their hometown newspapers?
Does it require too much work for the mainstream media, or do politically correct times keep the topic taboo?
You'd think that these compounds would be a priority for Homeland Security, but they aren't.
One of the letters to Williams via CFP was from a member of Homeland Security asking for more information!
It seems to be politically incorrect to write about radical Muslim paramilitary compounds flourishing on American soil and politically incorrect to talk about terrorism.
For some American and Canadian citizens, it's welcome to life with a deadly enemy living right next door. All Credit to Judy McLeod at http://www.libertypost.org/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=189971
Radical Muslim paramilitary compound
Blogger who posted CFP Islamberg story had life threatened
By Judi McLeod
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
"Dear Robert, Brigette and Paul (Williams),
"Were any of you threatened in any way, specifically for carrying the Islamberg story?" asked a blogger, who copied Canada Free Press (CFP) last night.
Robert is Robert Spencer, the director of Jihad Watch, a project of the David Horowitz Freedom Center, and author of two New York Times bestsellers on Islamic Jihad.
Brigette is Brigette Gabriel, a Lebanese Christian and Middle East correspondent, who is Director of American Congress.
Update on story: May 21, 2007 Islamberg not the only radical Muslim compound flourishing in North America
Paul Williams, prolific writer and author of the newly released Day of Islam, wrote a CFP cover story published May 11, detailing a radical Muslim paramilitary compound that flourishes in upper New York State.
The story, posted by Michael Savage and carried by dozens of blogs, including www.littlegreenfootballs.com, was virtually ignored by the mainstream media.
Someone didn't like the story and that someone threatened the life of U.S. war veteran and blogger Scott Grayban.
Grayban publishes blog.borgnet.us. in Spokane, Washington.
CFP receives thousands of emails from readers. The one from Grayban's blogger friend caught our immediate attention.
The blogger, whose name is being withheld by CFP, hoped flagging the Internet might protect Grayban's physical safety if someone publicized the two threats made on his life over the telephone.
That is the reason for this story.
Grayban received two phone calls on Sunday night from a foreigner, threatening his life.
"The caller used a hacked phone (or internet line) to disguise the location from which he was calling. (Please see jpeg of record/caller ID attached at bottom of page).
"The caller told Scott the precise street on which he lives, that he lives across from an auto shop, that he has a solar panel in his apartment window and the make of the car he drove to the mall on Saturday."
As the blogger pointed out, "These aren't details anyone could obtain from Google Earth."
Someone is following Scott Grayban in Washington State. Yet the local FBI office told him to call the police. The local police told him to call the FBI and his phone carrier (Vonage) said there's no way to trace the call.
There might be a way to trace the call with a court order, but it's unlikely that Grayban could ever get one.
Cold comfort for a man who's being stalked and threatened.
The blogger made the decision to "publicize this threat has occurred" and sent out an email to ask if anyone else who carried this story has also been threatened.
No one at CFP, who originally ran the Williams' story, has been threatened. The writer of this article was unable to reach Paul Williams at his Pennsylvania home at press time and is convinced that she would have heard from the author if he had been threatened.
Williams and Northeast Intelligence Director and private investigator Doug Hagmann, scouted out a Jihadist camp dubbed Islamberg, at the foothills of the Catskill Mountains on the outskirts of Hancock, New York, last summer.
"Islamberg is not an ideal place for a summer vacation unless, of course, you are an exponent of the Jihad or a fan of Osama bin Laden," Williams wrote in CFP on May 11, 2007.
Very few visitors come to Islamberg, where a sentry post has been established at the base of the hill.
"Islamberg is a branch of Muslims of the Americas Inc., a tax-exempt organization formed in 1980 by Pakistani cleric Sheikh Mubarak Ali Gilani, who refers to himself as "the sixth Sultan Ul Faqr". Gilani has been directly linked by court documents to Jamaat u-Fuqra or "community of the impoverished", an organization that seeks to "purify" Islam through violence.
"Islamberg is not as benign as a Buddhist monastery or a Carmelite convent. Nearly every weekend, neighbors hear sounds of gunfire. Some, including a combat veteran of the Vietnam War, have heard the bang of small explosives. None of the neighbors wished to be identified for fear of "retaliation". "We don't even dare to slow down when we drive by", one resident said. "They own the mountain and they know it and there is nothing we can do about it but move, and we can't even do that. Who wants to buy a property near that?"
"Even though Jamaat ul-Fuqra has been involved in terror attacks and sundry criminal activities, recruited thousands of members from federal and state penal systems, and appears to be operating paramilitary facilities for militant Muslims, it remains to be placed on the official US Terror Watch List. On the contrary, it continues to operate, flourish and expand as a legitimate nonprofit, tax-deductible charity."
It seems that Williams and company raised a hornet's nest in their visit to Islamberg and some of the hornets went buzzing all the way to Spokane, Washington.
Meanwhile the blogger who tipped off CFP about the threats to Scott Grayban, emailed to say a report was finally taken by Spokane Washington police. The SPD report number is 07-132-368.
Let's hope that Grayban remains safe from harm.
All Credit to Judy McLeod at http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/cover051507.htm
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JIHAD AMONG JUNIPERS AND MINT JULEPS. RADICAL ISLAM COMES TO FULL BLOOM IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
by Paul L. Williams, Ph.D. (author of The Day of Islam)
with the able assistance of Shawn Michaels, Jamal Babour and Dr. Hugh Cort
"Entrance to the Jamaat ul-Fuqra Compound at Red House Va.
The Islamic practice of taqiyya, meaning "deception" or "concealment," has been refined into an art-form at a jihad training compound for African American converts near the small town of Red House in Charlotte County, Virginia.
The fifty-acre compound is easy to find since the main road leading to it has been named Sheikh Gilani Lane in honor of the guru and founder of a terrorist organization with close ties to Osama bin Laden. The Board of Supervisors of Charlotte County are either oblivious to the threat of radical Islam on American soil or clandestine advocates of the great jihad.
At the end Sheikh Gilani Lane is a sign - - barely visible through the overgrown brush - - that reads, "The Muslims of the Americas." The sign serves to make the place appear as an innocuous religious settlement, until one realizes that The Muslims of the Americas is, in reality, an outgrowth of Jamaat ul-Fuqra, an alleged sister agency to al-Qaeda.
Several weeks before 9/11, a guard house and a gate had been erected at the entrance to the Red House compound.
But the guard house and the gate are now gone, and no sentries - - armed or otherwise - - are in sight, that is until you get well inside the complex of old trailers and pre-fab shanties. The only person to be seen in the the compound is an African American crone in a full black burqa sans the face cover known as a hijab. The day is hot and humid and the burqa serves to give the wizened old woman the appearance of a wayside witch from a Grimm's fairy tale.
"The men are all gone," the crone says from a park bench. "No one is here."
The Red House compound certainly appears deserted. A few mobile homes, several rusty old trailers, and a few mounds of debris among waist-high weeds remain along an old dirt road that runs through the Islamic village, but there appears to be little of interest, let alone concern.
As soon as the investigators park their car and trek into compound, the old woman removes a mobile phone from a sachet and dials a number.
In a matter of minutes, a pick-up truck appears at the entranceway. Two young African Americans dressed in skull caps and jalabiyahs emerge from the vehicle. "What are you doing here?" they ask.
Jamal, an Egyptian journalist, says in Arabic, "I'm here to see the Imam. Where does he live?"
One of the young men, whose Arabic name translates as "Slave of God", indicates that the Imam is not in and he should knock on the door of a ramshackle blue structure where he was told "Ahmed", one of the Elders may be found.
Jamal proceeds to the structure and rings the bell, but no one answers. Another member of our investigative team knocks at the doors of the trailers and mobile homes but there is no response. Some of the windows to the homes have been holed up with bricks save for openings that are ideal for assault rifles.
The young African Americans, who have shown up on the scene, are becoming agitated. They begin to make calls on their cell phones.
Then something miraculous happens.
At the Imam's residence, Muslim men begin to emerge in droves from a small storage shed attached to the house. It seems like a scene from a Marx Brothers movie in which dozens of people pour out of a closet. The investigators are suddenly surrounded by forty or fifty members of the complex in Islamic gowns and white skullcaps.
"What brings you here?" they ask.
"We heard about the village," Jamal says, "and wanted to pay a visit. I thought I could stop by for evening prayers."
"The evening prayers are over," says one of the newly materialized men, who could be a professional body builder.
In the blink of an eye, another wondrous thing occurs.
Hundreds of more African Americans in Islamic garb materialize from the dense forests, the high grass of the open meadows, and the rusty trailers that just seconds ago appeared to be deserted.
A covey of late model cars and SUV's converge on the compound from a network of dirt roads. The Muslims who emerge from the vehicles appear more affluent than the others. The men wear white halabiyahs with matching head coverings. The women are dressed in colorful caftans and flowing abayas. They seem to be models from the Crescent Moon boutique.
"Are you the police?" a female villager asks through the shaded window of the Imam's residence.
"No," Jamal answers. "We just stopped by to join in prayer."
"This is not a place for tourists," screeches the woman in the Imam's house, "and we don't like you taking pictures of our houses and automobiles."
By this time, the Red House compound is swarming with hundreds of Muslim men, women, and children - - and several appear to be deeply agitated by the intruders.
Jamal produces a card from a radical imam he had met the day before at the radical Dar al-Hijrah mosque in Falls Church. It serves as a ticket out of the place.
What is taking place in the Red House complex? Is the complex amidst the rolling hills of southern Virginia a peaceful Islamic village where devout Muslims have gathered to retreat from the hustle and bustle of contemporary American life in order to pray, meditate, and to live in strict accordance with the traditions of their faith? Or is it something more sinister - - something that should alarm every American who is concerned about the threat of radical Islam?
These factors are clear:
(1). There is an underground bunker at the complex that may be used for paramilitary training and possibly to harbor deadly weapons for use in the great jihad against Christians and Jews. Twenty-four members of this Jamaat ul-Fuqra complex already have been arrested for trafficking in illegal firearms, including the ammunition for AK-47s.
(2). Members of the compound have been sent to Pakistan and Afghanistan for specialized training in guerilla warfare - - a fact confirmed by Thomas P. Gallagher, a Special Agent for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms.
(3). The Red House compound regularly receives visits from suspicious guests from Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.
(4). The Red House cell of ul-Fuqra has metastasized so that similar Islamic compounds have popped up in neighboring Prince George and Campbell Counties. The 25 acre facility in Prince George County is situated on Mahareen Road, a name selected by the Muslim newcomers and duly approved by the local ordinance officials. Mahareen is the plural of the Arabic mahar, meaning "clever one." The facility in Campbell County is considerably larger, occupying more than 100 acres. An additional compound reportedly has materialized in Bedford County near the city of Roanoke.
(5). Several Virginia compounds appear to possess obstacle courses, and firing ranges.
(6). Members of the compounds have been known to refer to themselves as "soldiers of Allah" and "Mohammad's commandos."
(7) What happens in the Red House compound stays in the Red House compound. The members of the radical Islamic community rarely appear in the nearby town; conduct little business with local merchants; and stay to themselves.
The Muslims of the Americas, the tax-exempt corporation which owns and operates the Red House compound, was formed in 1980 by Pakistani cleric Sheikh Mubarak Ali Gilani. It is, according to an official report, a "front organization" for terrorist activities. A 2005 Homeland Security report predicts that the Muslims of the Americas will sponsor a major terrorist attack on American soil.
The parent organization of The Muslims of the Americas is Jamaat ul-Fuqra or "community of the impoverished" which retains headquarters in Lahore, Pakistan. The purpose of Jamaat ul-Fuqra, as established by Sheikh Gilani, is not to serve some beneficent good for the cause of the impoverished but rather to "purify" Islam through violence.
A quack practitioner of something called "Quranic psychiatry, Sheikh Gilani refers to himself as "the sixth Sultan ul Faqr." The Sheikh claims to have supernatural powers and to receive regular visits from "non-human beings." In 1979, Gilani came to believe that he could begin the processing of purifying Islam through violence with the aid of socially disgruntled and economically disenfranchised blacks within the inner cities of New York and New Jersey. The basis of this belief was Gilani conviction that a sizeable number of African Americans fostered an innate hatred of the United States and could be easily convinced to further the cause of global jihad. Many may have viewed Gilano's mission as a cockamamie scheme that smacked of racism, but it worked like a hypnotic charm from Scheherazade.
At the al-Farouq mosque in Brooklyn, a dingy establishment at 554 Atlantic Avenue, Gilani, sporting ammunition belts, spoke of Islam as the cure for all societal ills and called upon the young men in attendance to take up arms in the holy war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Hundreds answered the call and headed off to a training camp in Abbotabad, Pakistan that had been established by Osama bin Laden and other members of the mujahadeen.
Knowing the need for new recruits, Gilani turned to the penal system and focused his attention on converting incarcerated blacks to his radical Islamic doctrine. Imams and religious instructors were dispatched to local, state, and federal prison facilities to accomplish this objective. The results were mind-boggling. Thousands converted on a weekly basis, drawn to the offers of protection, special meals, and release from work detail for daily prayers and the entire month of Ramadan.
Gilani soon came to the realization that it would be financially advantageous to train new recruits for the holy war on American soil rather than to pay the freight of sending them to Pakistan, and the sites of his other training camps throughout the world. And so, Islamberg in Hancock, New York came into being. Soon other hamaats were established in such places as Hyattsville, Maryland; Falls Church, Virginia; Macon, Georgia; York, South Carolina; Dover, Tennessee; Buena Vista, Colorado; Talihina, Oklahoma; Tulane Country, California; Commerce, California; and Onalaska, Washington. The Red House compound cropped up in 1993. Others are under construction, including an expansive facility in Sherman, Pennsylvania. How many hamaats are now in place throughout the United States is anyone's guess. A low-ball figure is 38.
Before becoming a citizen of the Red House compound or any of the other Fuqra communities, the recruits - - primarily inner city black men who became converts in prison - - are compelled to sign an oath that reads: "I shall always hear and obey, and whenever given the command, I shall readily fight for Allah's sake." They are also obliged to contribute 70% of their welfare checks and other sources of income to Muslims of the Americas, Inc.
Mission accomplished among the African Americans, Sheikh Gilani returned to his native Lahore circa 1990. In December 1993, he was an honored guest at an international gathering of jihadis at the residence of Hassan al-Turabi in Khartoum. At the gathering, attended by members of al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular and Democratic Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine, Sheikh Gilani, Osama bin Laden, and other prominent terrorist leaders were caught on film chanting, "Down, down with the USA!" "Down, down with the CIA," and "Death to the Jews."
Over the years, numerous members of Jamaat ul-Fuqra have been convicted in US courts of such crimes as conspiracy to commit murder, firebombing, gun smuggling, and workers' compensation fraud. Others remain leading suspects in criminal cases throughout the country, including ten unsolved assassinations and seventeen fire-bombings between 1979 and 1990. Associates of the group were also instrumental in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.
The criminal charges against the group and the criminal convictions are not things of the past. In 2001, a 19 year-old former resident of the Red House compound was charged with the first-degree murder in the shooting of a sheriff's deputy in California. By 2004 federal investigators uncovered evidence that linked both the DC "sniper killer" John Allen Muhammed and "Shoe Bomber" Richard Reid to the group and reports surfaced that Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl was captured and beheaded in the process of attempting to obtain an interview with Sheikh Gilani in Pakistan.
Even though Jamaat ul-Fuqra has been involved in bloody bombings and sundry criminal activities, recruited thousands of members from federal and state penal systems, and appears to be operating paramilitary facilities for militant Muslims, the terror organization remains to be placed on the official US Terror Watch List, and The Muslims of the Americas continue to operate, flourish, and expand as a legitimate nonprofit, tax-deductible charity.
Meanwhile, the hills of rural Virginia are alive with the sound of jihad.
But few are listening."
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How to Forecast and Preempt al-Qaeda’s Catastrophic Terrorist Warfare
All Credit to: Joshua Sinai, Ph.D.
August 2003 (revised); originally published February 2002
Joshua Sinai is a senior policy analyst in the Intelligence Division at ANSER, in Shirlington, VA. He is a specialist on international strategic and security issues; his professional work focuses on assessing terrorism in all its dimensions—the origins of terrorism, terrorist group profiles, developing indications and warning methodologies to forecast terrorist warfare (particularly the paths, links, and processes involved in the transition by terrorist groups from conventional to chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and cyber-warfare) and new approaches for governments to resolve terrorist insurgencies. Among his recent publications is a handbook, coauthored with his ANSER colleague Lt. Colonel Jeffrey Adams (U.S. Army, retired), Protecting Schools and Universities from Terrorism: A Guide for Administrators and Teachers, published in September 2003 by the American Society for Industrial Security. Joshua Sinai obtained his M.A. and Ph.D. from the Political Science Department at Columbia University.
The aim of this article is to provoke consideration of a new way to conceptualize al-Qaeda’s intentions and plans to conduct catastrophic warfare against the United States, its allies, and other threatened nations around the world. In response to the horrific attacks of 11 September 2001, follow-on attacks in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and several thwarted plots in Europe, anticipating and preventing future attacks by al-Qaeda and its affiliated terrorist groupings have become first-order national security priorities for many of the world’s intelligence and law enforcement communities. Such analysis is also required in the nongovernmental, open-source communities as well. Although it is difficult to predict the likelihood of every major attack by a group such as al-Qaeda, because terrorist groups have the advantage of striking at a time and location of their choosing, there already exists a wealth of diagnostically predictive indicators pointing to the next waves of catastrophic attacks by a group such as al-Qaeda and its network of terrorist allies.
This article outlines seven predictive attack indicators to forecast catastrophic terrorism. Political leaders, policy planners, and military, intelligence, and law enforcement operators at all levels will greatly improve their capabilities to respond to the terrorist challenge if they operationalize these predictive indicators against al-Qaeda’s historic and potential strategies, tactics, and targeting. Such “red-teaming” of a terrorist group’s warfare potential is similar to the way military commanders play adversary forces (the “red teams”) against their own forces (the “blue teams”).
Building a robust predictive capability to anticipate and preemptively prevent attacks by groups such as al-Qaeda now is more important than ever because of their determination to inflict catastrophic damage upon their adversaries. As demonstrated by the suicide attacks against Australian and British tourists in Bali, Indonesia; Israeli tourists in Mombassa, Kenya (where an additional 250 Israeli lives could have been lost had the Arkia airliner been hit by the shoulder-fired rocket); and the large residential complex in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, housing American and other foreign families; as well as a suicide attack by two British al-Qaeda operatives on a popular seaside bar in Tel Aviv; al-Qaeda is as determined as ever to demonstrate its viability as the world’s most lethal terrorist group.
The catastrophic attacks of 11 September and the follow-on poisonous anthrax letter campaign (which reportedly was not carried out by al-Qaeda) have ushered in a new terrorist warfare paradigm in which attacks against the United States and its allies have vastly escalated in the lethality of their weaponry and targeting. The threshold from “conventional” low-impact terrorist warfare has been crossed, as demonstrated by the horrific attacks against the World Trade Center and news reports about interest in acquiring or actual experimentation by al-Qaeda in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear devices and weapons—however crude and low tech. As a consequence of these factors, the new means of terrorist attacks we are likely to face will involve not only such weapons of mass destruction and disruption but conventional means to attack critical infrastructural targets such as nuclear and chemical plants, agricultural nodes such as livestock feeding centers, and the heart of the American and world economy—such as the New York Stock Exchange—with catastrophic human and economic consequences. Usama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network and its satellite affiliates are the most likely groups to carry out such catastrophic attacks because of their intent—a virulent hatred of their adversaries—capability, and resources.
As the top leaders, members of sleeper and active cells, and other operatives of al-Qaeda and its allies are being arrested or killed in their former centers of gravity in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other parts of the world (reportedly, some 3,000 operatives, forming one-third to one-half of the group’s upper and lower echelons, have been eliminated as active terrorists), there still undoubtedly remain hundreds of new leaders, operatives, and sleeper cells armed with target folders for the next waves of catastrophic terrorist operations. The U.S.-led overthrow of al-Qaeda’s Taliban allies in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, as well as holding Taliban and al-Qaeda operatives in detention centers such as Guantanamo Bay, cumulatively are likely to serve as major triggers for their remaining operatives to seek catastrophic revenge on behalf of their fallen, retreating, or arrested comrades.
To forecast the next waves of likely catastrophic terrorist attacks, this analysis uses a methodology based on seven predictive attack indicators, generated from al-Qaeda’s mindset, modus operandi, and target selection based on its training handbook (available on the Department of Justice website); public statements by bin Laden and his associates that have been broadcast on television news programs; and the extensive media reporting of the group’s previous failed attacks and plots (as outlined in captured documents), which often serve as blueprints for its future targeting.
To anticipate, preempt, and deter future catastrophic attacks, the following methodology employing seven predictive attack indicators can be operationalized to forecast the next waves of al-Qaeda terrorist operations, as outlined in the following threat matrix.
Methodology to Forecast Catastrophic Terrorism Against the U.S. Homeland
Indications and Warning Indicators and Observables Preceding the 11 September 2001 Attacks
| Terrorist Group |
Al-Qaeda |
Armed Islamic Group (GIA) |
| Previous Attacks or Plots |
1993 World Trade Center bombing
1993 plots against Holland Tunnel, Empire State Building, UN headquarters
Mid-1990s plot to bomb CIA headquarters
December 1999 plot to bomb Los Angeles International Airport
October 2000 bombing of USS Cole
September 2001 plot to crash aircraft into U.S. Capitol and White House |
Dec. 1994 attempt to plunge airliner into Eiffel Tower |
| Modus Operandi |
Meticulous planning as outlined in captured al-Qaeda training manual
Innovative operationally and tactically
- Training to fly commercial aircraft at U.S. and other flight schools
- Seek highly visible and symbolic targets
|
|
| Weapons and Devices |
Interest and training in using commercial aircraft as weapons of mass destruction |
|
| State Sponsor Ties |
Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers provided safe haven and logistical support
State sponsor Iraq seeks vengeance against United States |
|
| Geography |
Worldwide operational cells, including cells in the United States |
|
| Significant Historical Dates |
12 September date of sentencing of African embassy bombing conspirators |
|
| Triggers |
12 September sentencing date of conspirators held in lower Manhattan triggered attack on 11 September |
|
| = Terror Attacks |
11 September simultaneous suicide bombing attacks against World Trade Center and Pentagon |
|
Attack indicator #1: Previous terrorist attacks, failed attacks, or plots not yet executed, which serve as blueprints for intentions and future targeting
Al-Qaeda and its allies have carried out numerous successful attacks since the early 1990s; however, they also have experienced quite a few significant failed attacks. In other cases, some plots have never been executed. Synthesizing the lessons learned from a group’s successful attacks, failed attacks, and plots can generate insight into its future intentions and capabilities. Plots, for example, can be uncovered by covertly penetrating a group, capturing its documents, or interrogating its apprehended operatives. In the case of al-Qaeda, much insight into its warfare proclivity can be gained by examining its training manual, which spells out missions that include destroying a nation’s foreign embassies, critical infrastructure nodes (such as vital economic sectors and bridges), and even places of amusement (because they are considered sinful).
Underlying the first predictive indicator are some of the following historical observables and actions:
- The February 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center towers. This attack resulted in extensive property damage and some loss of life but failed to bring down the towers. The bombing was intended to be accompanied by the bombing of several other targets in New York City, such as the Empire State Building, the Holland Tunnel, and United Nations headquarters.
- In December 1994, an al-Qaeda affiliate, the Algerian Armed Islamic Group, hijacked an Air France Airbus with 171 passengers aboard, intending to plunge it into the Eiffel Tower. None of the hijackers could fly the aircraft to its intended target, so, instead, the plane landed in Marseilles, where French police stormed it.
- In the mid-1990s, Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, while in the Philippines, plotted to blow up 11 U.S. airliners and, in a separate plot, fly planes filled with explosives into the CIA headquarters in Langley, VA, and nuclear facilities elsewhere in the United States.
- In December 1999, an al-Qaeda affiliate was involved in a foiled plot to bomb Los Angeles International Airport. At the same time, al-Qaeda operatives were foiled by Jordanian security authorities in their attempt to blow up tourist sites in Jordan, and internal hurdles prevented them from bombing the U.S.S. Sullivans in the Yemeni port of Aden.
- On 8 September 2001, two al-Qaeda operatives pretending to be journalists assassinated Northern Alliance commander General Ahmed Shah Masoud at his Afghanistan base by detonating a bomb concealed in their video camera.
- The airplane that ultimately crashed into the Pentagon during the 11 September hijackings reportedly also targeted the U.S. Capitol and the White House. The fourth airplane, which crashed in a Pennsylvania field, reportedly was unable to crash into the U.S. Capitol or the White House, or, in another published although unconfirmed scenario, was en route to crash into a nuclear facility.
- Al-Qaeda operatives had planned to hijack airplanes in Britain and crash them into the Houses of Parliament and London’s Tower Bridge.
Operationalizing attack indicator #1 yields this forecasting assessment: the 11 September bombing of the World Trade Center signifies that when al-Qaeda fails in its initial mission (in this case, the abortive 1993 attack), it is likely to return—whatever length of time is required to prepare for the next mission—to complete that objective. It can be surmised, therefore, that al-Qaeda operatives are likely to persist in their objective of attacking the following that are part of their target folder (all information is entirely speculative): the Holland Tunnel, the Empire State Building, United Nations headquarters, the Eiffel Tower, the CIA headquarters, the U.S. Capitol, the White House, and nuclear power facilities. In addition, Disney World amusement parks are likely targets. In Britain, the Houses of Parliament and the Tower Bridge, which reportedly were contemplated by al-Qaeda as part of their 11 September worldwide attack repertoire, are still likely to remain at the top of al-Qaeda’s ranking of trophy targets.
In addition, the September 2001 assassination of General Masoud by operatives in disguise and several attempts since then to assassinate members of the current Afghan leadership portend continuous efforts by al-Qaeda operatives and their allies to assassinate leaders of their adversaries. Of particular concern are likely efforts by these terrorist operatives to carry out their assassination attempts in disguise or to use operatives who do not fit regular profile attributes in order to evade possible detection.
Attack indicator #2: A terrorist group’s modus operandi, especially tactics
Al-Qaeda’s modus operandi, as demonstrated by the 11 September attacks and outlined in its training manual, involves meticulous planning, training, and precisely timed simultaneous execution. Such warfare capability is attained through extensive training and operational and tactical innovations.
Based on its modus operandi, publicly announced intentions, and previous actions, al-Qaeda’s future attacks will likely involve some of the following tactics:
- Truck bomb attacks on the ground or using aerial or maritime delivery means, such as miniature submarines or shipborne containers, to transport chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear devices to a targeted site.
- Driving a truck loaded with a hazardous-material explosives against a prominent target, such as a tunnel, bridge, or busy downtown area.
- Detonating a radioactive dispersal device (a “dirty” bomb) near a nuclear power facility or a major financial center, such as the New York Stock Exchange.
Attack indicator #3: Use of particular types of weapons and devices that a terrorist group perceives will achieve its objectives
The simultaneous suicide bombing attacks of 11 September portend that the next phase will likely involve even more catastrophic assaults, with each successive plot employing highly innovative and deadlier weapons and devices to inflict maximum casualties and physical damage.
Current news reporting is filled with discussions of possible chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attacks by al-Qaeda operatives. Such speculation is not without foundation. Bin Laden’s Afghan training camps taught skills for using weapons of mass destruction—such as feeding poison gas through the air vents of office buildings. Other reports claimed that bin Laden’s operatives tried to obtain uranium from the former Soviet republics but instead were given low-grade reactor fuel and radioactive garbage. Also possible, in this catastrophic scenario, are attacks that would use conventional or unconventional explosives against a nuclear power plant or chemical facility.
A chemical attack could be carried out by a crop-dusting plane spraying sections of a city. One of al-Qaeda’s operatives who was involved in the 11 September attacks reportedly had in his possession a manual for operating crop-dusting equipment, so such an attack should not be discounted.
Another worst-case scenario might involve al-Qaeda operatives crashing a truck into the New York Stock Exchange building (which reportedly has inadequate perimeter defenses) to detonate a dirty bomb mixed with conventional and radioactive materials. Such an attack would render the stock exchange and its immediate surroundings inactive for weeks, setting off temporary worldwide economic turmoil—although this might be offset by the backup computer data storage systems located elsewhere.
The London Stock Exchange, which has already been contemplated as a target by al-Qaeda, represents another likely trophy target, also with potentially devastating economic consequences worldwide.
Based on al-Qaeda’s intention to inflict maximum economic damage, another worst-case scenario involves a biological agent attack against a U.S. agricultural sector, which would produce an impact similar to that of the foot-and-mouth outbreak that devastated British agriculture. Such an attack would also severely impact the U.S. and worldwide commodities trading market. Similarly, a terrorist-induced outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome would devastate a region’s tourism or export industries.
Attack indicator #4: The objectives of a group’s state sponsor
State sponsors are crucial to terrorist groups engaging in catastrophic warfare because the resources of a state can be helpful in so many ways. Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers provided bin Laden and al-Qaeda with a safe haven. Saddam’s regime in Iraq, until its overthrow, may have provided the group with some degree of support because of the convergence of their objectives, particularly in taking revenge against the United States. According to press reports, terrorists have been trained at Iraqi camps in chemical and biological warfare and in flying commercial aircraft. Press reports also indicated that an al-Qaeda operative, Muhammad Ataf, met an Iraqi intelligence official in Prague several times. Iran now is reported to provide al-Qaeda with logistical and other forms of support, including collaboration with Iran’s terrorist proxy, the Lebanese Hizballah.
Although there may be few apparent smoking guns, it is reasonable to assume that al-Qaeda is interested in obtaining the support of Iran’s radical clerical leaders in mounting its catastrophic warfare against their common adversaries. Such state support would provide al-Qaeda with access to certain types of weapons of mass destruction that would be difficult for the group to obtain on its own.
Attack indicator #5: The geographic factor
The geographic factor is a crucial predictive indicator because it pinpoints a group’s operational center of gravity and logistical capability to reach, conduct surveillance of, and attack its adversary. Al Qaeda is the umbrella organization of an international network of like-minded groups with hundreds of cells around the world. These groups operate as planets in al-Qaeda’s solar system, which makes them highly dangerous because they already possess the infrastructure to carry out terrorist attacks in any part of the world, as demonstrated by their capability to carry out attacks with relative ease in dispersed countries such the Philippines, Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Morocco, and Kenya, with reported sleeper cells in Western countries such as Britain, Spain, and the United States. Already, al-Qaeda operatives have carried out or attempted to carry out attacks against American targets in these countries, including a thwarted attempt by an al-Qaeda cell to attack American and British warships in the Strait of Gibraltar.
Moreover, al-Qaeda has expanded its geographic target folder to include Israel, as demonstrated by its successful attack in Kenya against Israeli tourists and the near-miss attack against the Israeli airliner. In fact, in May 2003, two British nationals allegedly affiliated with al-Qaeda traveled to Israel to carry out a suicide bombing of a popular bar in Tel Aviv.
Based on this predictive indicator, potential regions to be targeted by al-Qaeda are likely to range from the United States to foreign lands, especially those where the United States maintains facilities that represent significant trophy targets, such as military bases or symbols of America’s economy—a fast food restaurant chain, a hotel chain, a cruise liner, or car dealerships.
Attack indicator #6: Historical dates of particular significance to terrorist groups
Terrorist groups, particularly religious groups, place a high premium on historical dates that are significant to their religion or their religio-ethnic community. Other types of historical dates, such as politically or militarily traumatic events, are also significant. 11 September may have been especially significant because the conspirators who carried out the 1998 African embassy bombings were to be sentenced the following day for their crimes. During that period, the conspirators were in a holding cell at a courthouse in downtown Manhattan near the World Trade Center, which fact may have propelled the terrorists to attack on the preceding day.
Other significant historical dates that are likely to trigger future al-Qaeda attacks are
- 17 January (the commencement of Operation Desert Storm)
- 19 March (Jerusalem Day proclaimed by Ayatollah Khomeini to demand the “liberation” of Jerusalem)
- 30 March (referred to by Israeli Arabs as “Land Day,” it features protests against alleged expropriation of Arab property)
- 7 May (Israeli independence day)
- 31 May (the annual pilgrimage in Mecca begins)
- 5 June (the beginning of the 1967 Six Day War between Israel and her Arab neighbors)
- 4 July (U.S. Independence Day)
- 31 December–1 January (New Year’s Day)
Attack indicator #7: Triggers that propel a group to launch attacks in a revenge mode as quickly as possible ahead of a previous timeline
A spectrum of triggers propels terrorist groups to hasten the timing of terrorist attacks, usually resulting from sudden developments, such as a severe military setback. For example, al-Qaeda’s conspiracy for the 11 September attacks began some two years prior to the attacks, but 12 September may have served as a trigger for the attacks to occur on the previous day.
New and devastating al-Qaeda attacks are likely to be triggered in response to its recent military defeats, particularly in Afghanistan, the detention of their captured operatives in centers at Guantanamo Bay and other areas, the overthrow of their previous state sponsors in Afghanistan and Iraq, and other factors.
Conclusions
The 11 September attacks and follow-on operations are part of al-Qaeda’s asymmetric warfare against the United States and its allies, in which small, fanatically dedicated teams are employed to inflict maximum psychological and physical damage on their much more powerful adversaries.
Terrorist attacks by groups such as al-Qaeda are intended to be catastrophic in terms of human and physical damage in order to punish and send a strong political message to the targeted adversary and to the group’s constituents that the group is a world-class destroyer and political force to be reckoned with. In response, the United States, Britain, and their allies have greatly upgraded their intelligence, situational awareness, and defensive, preemptive, and deterrence postures.
Failing to anticipate the 11 September horrific attacks represented more than a failure of intelligence—it was a failure of imagination. Previously, such attacks were viewed as too grandiose and farfetched to be taken serious by intelligence and law enforcement authorities. Now these attacks, the attacks that have been thwarted, and other plots are perceived as likely blueprints for future catastrophic terrorist operations against the United States and its allies.
Security and risk assessment professionals must always adopt proactive measures to anticipate, defend against, and preempt new types of terrorist threats. Moreover, one should not expect past trends to necessarily reveal future attack patterns because terrorists, especially al-Qaeda planners, always seek to exploit new vulnerabilities and new and innovative modes of warfare in order to evade detection and inflict maximum damage. Therefore, to avert catastrophic attacks that previously were considered beyond the imagination of those responsible for security, we need to begin thinking like the terrorist enemy—always anticipating and preparing to counteract new types of attacks and targeting potentialities. Continuous red-teaming is required, using outside-the-box threat and risk assessments and the most advanced (yet user-friendly) computerized predictive analytic tool kits. Such red-teaming must focus on multidimensional, not unidimensional, baskets of potential threats. Above all, emphasis must be placed on intelligence tracking of suspected terrorist networks, cells, and operatives; detection; and, above all, preemption during the earliest possible pre-attack incubatory phases.
Within this context, this threat assessment is intended to provide some of the initial conceptual means to anticipate and prevent catastrophic terrorist attacks, such as those that occurred on 11 September, from occurring again.
Joshua Sinai may be reached at joshua.sinai@anser.org
Article is from: http://www.homelandsecurity.org/newjournal/articles/sinaiforecast.htm