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Pakistan's middle-class ready for a move back toward democracy. They're ready for Musharraf to step down" NPR Report

Posted by Gabrielle Cusumano on Thursday, April 05, 2007 1:28:58 PM
 "Ahmed Rashid, author of the best-selling Taliban and Jihad, argues that Musharraf has misjudged his country's mood, that Pakistan's middle-class is ready for a move back toward democracy and that they're ready for Musharraf to step down." Fresh Air on NPR 

 

  • World: Ahmed Rashid: Political Crisis in Pakistan
     

    Ahmed Rashid: Political Crisis in Pakistan

    Audio for this story will be available at approx. 3:00 p.m. ET

     
    Journalist and author Ahmed Rashid
    Courtesy AhmedRashid.com

    Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid covers his country and its politics for English-language papers.

    Fresh Air from WHYY, April 5, 2007 · Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf faces protests at home — and given his stance on the Taliban, eroding support in the West as well. Journalist and author Ahmed Rashid parses the challenges and possibilities of contemporary Pakistani politics.

    The Bush administration sees Musharraf as a major ally in the war on terrorism. He came to power in a 1999 coup; his 5-year term as president is up this year, and with protest movements emerging both in the Pakistani middle-class and among Islamist extremists, it's far from clear how he'll proceed.

    Rashid, author of the best-selling Taliban and Jihad, argues that Musharraf has misjudged his country's mood, that Pakistan's middle-class is ready for a move back toward democracy and that they're ready for Musharraf to step down.

    A violent government crackdown on public protest, Rashid says, has only unified the opposition, and "anything he does now to keep himself in power ... is going to lead to more protests and more aggravation on the streets."

     

    Related NPR Stories

    Pakistani Protests Pose Challenge to Musharraf

    Thursday, April 5, 2007
  • Audio for today's show will be available at approx. 3:00 p.m. ET

ALL CREDIT TO NPR AND FRESH AIR AND TO HOST TERRI GROSS

By Ahmed Rashid
Thursday, March 22, 2007; A21

LAHORE, Pakistan -- In the rapidly unfolding crisis in Pakistan, no matter what happens to President Pervez Musharraf -- whether he survives politically or not -- he is a lame duck. He is unable to rein in Talibanization in Pakistan or guide the country toward a more democratic future.

Since March 9, when Musharraf suspended the chief justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, public protests have escalated every day -- as has a violent crackdown by the police and intelligence agencies on the media and the nation's legal fraternity.

The legal convolutions about Chaudhry's dismissal boil down to one simple fact: He was not considered sufficiently reliable to deliver pleasing legal judgments in a year when Musharraf is seeking to extend his presidency by five more years, remain as army chief and hold what would undoubtedly be rigged general elections.

Musharraf's desire to replace Chaudhry with a more pliable judge has badly backfired. After just 10 days of protests, lawyers around the country have made it clear to the senior judiciary that they will not tolerate further legal validations for continued military rule or tolerate Musharraf remaining as president. At least seven judges and a deputy attorney general have resigned in protest.

Across the country, in law offices, in the media, among the opposition parties and other organized sections of civil society, the feeling is growing that Musharraf will have to quit sooner rather than later. After eight years of military rule it appears people have had enough.

Moreover, Musharraf is losing control of three key elements that have sustained his rule but are now either distancing themselves or turning on him completely. The first is the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Party, which has acted as the civilian appendage to the military but faces an election and knows that going to bat for the unpopular Musharraf will turn off voters. Party leaders and cabinet ministers are already distancing themselves from him.

The second element is the country's three intelligence agencies, which are at loggerheads over control of Musharraf, Pakistan's foreign policy, its political process and the media. Military Intelligence and the Inter-Services Intelligence are military agencies, while the largest civilian agency, the Intelligence Bureau, is now run by a military officer. Ironically, Inter-Services Intelligence, the most powerful agency in the country, has been the moderate element urging Musharraf to open up the political system to the opposition parties. The other two agencies are the hard-liners and are urging Musharraf to adopt even tougher measures.

The third loss for Musharraf has been the unqualified international support he has received since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Anger in the U.S. Congress and media, and particularly among members of the Republican Party, toward Musharraf's dual-track policy in Afghanistan -- helping to catch al-Qaeda members but backing the Taliban -- is making it difficult for President Bush to continue offering Musharraf his blanket support.

That was the tough-love message that Vice President Cheney delivered to Musharraf in Islamabad last month: Unless Musharraf goes after the Taliban, the Bush administration can no longer protect him.

Any loss of Western support will be critical to the army, which is on an arms-buying spree and depends on annual U.S. military aid of about $300 million. Musharraf has balanced the pro- and anti-American factions in the army's officer corps, but if both sides see him as a lame duck, unable to deliver the goods or stabilize the country, their support will dwindle.

Musharraf is now too weak to pursue policies that could keep his back-stabbers in check, restore his credibility at home and abroad, and pursue his agenda of remaining in power for the next five years.

It is far better that he revert to the promise he made when he seized power in 1999: to return the country to democracy. His best course of action would be to say he is not a candidate for president, hold free and fair elections, allow the return of exiled politicians, restore full political rights and gracefully depart with his legacy, which is considerable, intact.

It is in the interest of the United States to support such an exit strategy. The military can no longer counter the phenomenal growth of Islamic extremism in Pakistan through offensives alone. What the country needs is greater political consensus and a popularly elected government, and to replace the extortions of the mullahs with the return of day-to-day parliamentary politics. The army created a political vacuum in which extremism has thrived. Pakistan needs a return to civil society and government.

Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist, is the author of "Taliban" and "Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia."

All Credit to the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/21/AR2007032101786_pf.html
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Pakistan's uncertain year ahead
Ahmed Rashid
By Ahmed Rashid, Lahore

Gen Pervez Musharraf
'The key issue is what political alliances Gen Musharraf will broker'

Pakistan is moving into a new year that will be critical for the country's future political direction.

The government says everything is on schedule for the re-election of President Pervez Musharraf and general elections by the end of 2007.

Yet Pakistanis are still gripped with severe bouts of uncertainty and few believe the government's assurances.

The unpredictability of what will actually happen is already affecting business confidence, say economists.

Islamic extremist groups, the mainstream Islamic parties and exiled national leaders are more interested in a showdown with Gen Musharraf to curtail his powers, or remove him from office, than an election.

Fortunately for the military, the opposition parties are deeply divided among themselves.

The reason for the uncertainty, that will last all of next year, is that the decision will be made by one man - Gen Musharraf himself - because in Pakistan there is no institutionalised, well-worn democratic succession process and the constitution is a mere piece of paper that can be altered by decree.

After seven years of Gen Musharraf and the military, people are tired of the army and looking for change


Your views on this article

The government scenario elaborated to me by leading figures of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) says that next autumn Gen Musharraf will likely go for an endorsement from the present National Assembly and provincial assemblies as president for the next five years.

Rumours of a deal

He will then dissolve parliament, set up a three-month caretaker government that will hold free and fair elections and then go for a second endorsement as president in 2008.

Most PML politicians do not expect him to relinquish his role in the military, in which case he will remain as both army chief and president.

However the decisions all lie with Gen Musharraf and his handful of military advisers rather than the ruling party or the prime minister - hence so much uncertainty.

Protests against Gen Musharraf
'Islamic groups are looking for a showdown with Gen Musharraf'
The key issue is what political alliances Gen Musharraf will broker for the election.

After his recent outbursts against extremism and the need for people to vote for moderates, rather than religious extremists, the long-running speculation that the army has struck a deal with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and its leader in self-imposed exile, Benazir Bhutto, are rife.

Both sides deny any deal, despite the political buzz.

However Gen Musharraf has made it clear that the return of Benazir Bhutto is out of the question. So too, he says, is the return of the prime minister he deposed, Nawaz Sharif, the exiled leader of another faction of the PML.

So why should the PPP cut a deal when its leader will not be allowed to campaign or stand for elections?

If there is a compromise and a deal with the PPP, it would mean the military breaking of its alliance with the Islamic parties that presently rule the provinces of Balochistan and the North West Frontier.

It is something that many in the US and western Europe are desperate to see happen and would clearly applaud.

The problem is that the PML and its leader Chaudry Shujjat Hussain, in particular, see the PPP as a major threat to their monopoly on power at the centre and in the largest province Punjab.

Concrete assurances

Moreover the logic of a deal with the PPP would mean that the military would also have to cast their lot with smaller secular Baloch and Pashtun nationalist parties in Balochistan and the NWFP - which the army is loathe to do because they oppose the continuation of military rule.

Again Gen Musharraf will have the last word and it is likely that he will only declare his political alliances at the last moment, thus fuelling continued uncertainty about the future.

The best option for a genuine step forward to democratisation would be for Gen Musharraf to announce that he would stand as a civilian president, that genuinely free and fair elections would be held and the future government would be freely determined on the election outcome.

Benazir Bhutto
'Speculation is rife that the army has struck a deal with Benazir Bhutto'
To gain public confidence he would also need to pledge that the elections would genuinely empower parliament and the next prime minister and that he and the army would take a back seat.

That would need concrete assurances such as a pledge to remove over 1,000 army officers who presently occupy key civilian posts in the government, economic institutions, media and the universities.

Thus the polls would be a transformative election moving the country slowly towards full and genuine civilian rule.

After seven years of Gen Musharraf and the military, people are tired of the army and looking for change.

Moreover only a genuine civilian government could begin the attempt to start a reconciliation process with all the alienated, angry elements of society such as the Baloch nationalists and the Pashtun extremists in the tribal agencies bordering Afghanistan.

Is such a transformative election likely?

Not really.

Gen Musharraf has repeatedly said in the past few months that that Pakistan would fall apart if he was not there to guide it, that a strong hand is needed and there can be only one centre of power - and by that he means the army.

So 2007 will be full of political noise and thunder, talk of deals and conspiracies, but when people do actually go to the polls, many will not be expecting anything much to change.  

All Credit To the BBC NEWS
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6211639.stm

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